$REGN Bears Are Telling You a Story. The Numbers Tell a Different One

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Here is what is at stake in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: $1090.64 if the read is right, $835.10 if it isn't. Everything else on this page is commentary.

The crowd has Regeneron Pharmaceuticals wrong. Not slightly wrong, directionally wrong, and the tape has been saying so for a while.

Somebody is still shorting Regeneron Pharmaceuticals into this, and the FINRA data doesn't care about anyone's opinion. It counts.

$REGN sits at $927.89, $7.46 below its 20-day high of $935.35 and $205.87 above its 20-day low of $722.02.

My read: bullish. Buyers are in control and the evidence backs it, though I still want the level to clear on volume.

The shorts have a problem

Against its own 60-session range, $REGN is 0.8% below the high of $935.35 (Oct 30) and 28.5% above the low of $722.02 (Oct 5). $REGN closed higher in 6 of its last 9 sessions.

Volume over the last five sessions averaged 1.5x the twenty sessions before them. The largest one-day move in the past twenty sessions was +13.3% on Oct 30.

59% of REGN's off-exchange volume printed as short sales (FINRA daily short volume), against a normal 51%.

Days to cover: 3.2.

What I make of it: a crowded short matters only if the stock stops falling, and then covering becomes buying. Whether that starts here is the whole question.

So what is the market actually pricing in? That is the next question.

Who is positioned for what

Off-exchange trading: NORMAL: $17.5M block at $927.89. Biggest single off-exchange print: 18,809 shares at $927.89, about $17.5M, on a downtick (seller hit). A print that size is one order being crossed away from the public book, not a crowd of small trades. Days to cover 3.2, 2.1M shares short, short interest -36.9% since the last report.

Squeeze risk 45 of 100; shorts pressing 44 of 100.

Across the broader market, the read is Lean bearish (bias -23). Sentiment readings show neutral (5 of 100). Insiders: quiet.

What I make of it: the pieces mostly point the same way as the price, which is more than I can say for most setups. None of them is proof.

None of which is the detail that changes the read. That comes next.

The bull case

• Short squeeze setup with a measured path to $1090.64

The bear case

• Backdrop: Lean bearish (bias -23)
• Borrow cost decides who exits first

What I think traders are overlooking

What I think traders are overlooking is how little room the thesis needs. The line that proves it wrong is close and the level it points to is not, which is the kind of imbalance I like to see.

None of that is visible in the candles.

What happens next, and when I'm out

If $REGN posts a close above the recent high on rising volume and volume expands, I think $1090.64 becomes the next serious test. Under $835.10, I'm wrong.

The honest objection is that short volume is not a short position. A high ratio is routine in liquid names, and sometimes the shorts are simply right.

Clear the level on volume and I'm interested. Fail below the line and I'm out of the idea.

Where the crowd has it wrong

The popular read on Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is simple: it has run too far and the next move is down. It is the kind of read that sounds right because everyone is repeating it, and that is the first thing wrong with it.

Here is what it skips. The buyers have not left: price is holding its ground while the bears get the headlines, and a floor that holds under pressure is not what a top looks like. My read is the opposite of the crowd's, and $835.10 is the line that settles the argument.

I would rather be early and specific than agreeable and vague. If the bears are right, I'm out at $835.10 and I will say so. If they are wrong, $1090.64 is where the argument ends.

Kill switch

Any one of these and the thesis is over, no averaging down, no renaming it.

• A close through $835.10.
• Selling absorbs the buying at a key level and price loses it on volume.
• Order flow reverses: the sweeps and blocks turn to the other side.
• A scheduled event changes the picture before the trigger is reached.

Every other read, in one place

Market cap about $84.3B. The stock is already running, and the run has gone parabolic: shorts are losing, not waiting.

Structure broke to the upside on the daily chart.

Market backdrop: Lean bearish (bias -23). Liquidity map levels: $815.31 (demand block), $908.87 (demand block), $822.96 (high-volume node), $913.02 (point of control). Dark pool: NORMAL: $17.5M block at $927.89. Biggest single off-exchange print: 18,809 shares at $927.89, about $17.5M, on a downtick (seller hit). A print that size is one order being crossed away from the public book, not a crowd of small trades.

For a long: no squeeze set-up: the fuel: buying is there, the short position is ordinary.

For a short seller: stand aside: this is a crowded short that is being bought (squeeze risk). MEM ALGO's short model has an open SELL (grade A)..

The scenarios, one by one

The base case: $REGN works through a close above the recent high on rising volume on volume and makes its way toward $1090.64 over days. That is the path the setup is built for, and it needs participation to stay honest.

The faster case: the move comes early and overshoots the target before the horizon is up. I would not chase that; I would let the level be retested.

The failure case: $835.10 gives way and the thesis ends where it started. No averaging down, no renaming it.

Checkpoints over the horizon

First, the trigger: a close above the recent high on rising volume. Nothing counts until that prints.

Then the confirmation: a second day of 59%-plus short volume with price refusing to fall: shorts pressing into strength. Without it the trigger was noise.

Then the target, $1090.64, and the decision at it: take the move, or let the next level set up. Through it all, $835.10 is the line that ends the trade.

What people are asking

Is $REGN a buy right now? Nobody honest answers that for you. The data says $REGN is a bullish short squeeze candidate with a scenario target of $1090.64 (+17.5%) and an invalidation at $835.10. Whether that fits your account, your horizon and your risk is your call, not ours.

What is the $REGN price target in this read? The scenario target is $1090.64, +17.5% from $927.89, over days. It is where the setup runs out of fuel if it works, not a forecast and not a recommendation.

What would prove the $REGN short squeeze thesis wrong? A close back under the 20-day average with short volume drying up: the shorts were right. If that happens, the read is wrong and the idea should not exist anymore.

How heavily shorted is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc? The latest reported days-to-cover figure is 3.2. 59% of recent off-exchange volume printed as short sales on the FINRA feed. Short interest is reported twice a month; short volume is daily, and the two measure different things.

My read

I'll take the unpopular side of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and put a line under it. $835.10 and I'm wrong. $1090.64 and the crowd was.

Desk record. 18 of 103 scenario targets traded before their invalidation (17%), 56 stopped out, 29 ran out of time, average outcome +1.65% per piece. Past pieces say nothing about this one.

The desk's scenario leans bullish. Bull or bear, the kill switch above is what keeps either view honest.

Sources and further reading: SEC EDGAR filings for REGN · FINRA daily short sale volume files · Nasdaq short interest: REGN · Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc investor site · REGN quote, chart and data on StockMarketLoop.

Data as of Oct 30, 6:31 PM ET: options positioning, FINRA short volume, the off-exchange trade record, the structure map, SEC filings and the ticker's headlines. Vaughn McNair (Grandmaster-Obi) and Making Easy Money may hold or trade positions in the names discussed. This is speculation and education, not financial advice.