GAMMA & VOLATILITY$SPCXSpace Exploration Technologies Corp.Open ticker analysis →The archived SPCX gamma table prints a $145 peak strike, $12.75M (negative) signed exposure estimate and a $147.49 stock reference. The estimate depends on a sign convention; actual dealer holdings and a pinning probability were not supplied.
What happened
The expiration was printed as Oct 26 (3 days), across 134 listed chain contracts. The table's premium value is a saved detector estimate, not a reconstruction of participants' execution cash flows.
Why it matters
The printed $145.00 peak strike differs from the $147.49 stock reference by ($145.00 − $147.49) ÷ $147.49 × 100 = -1.7%. This distance is arithmetic, not the probability that price will reach or remain at the strike.
The saved metadata says dealers_short_calls_long_puts, while the detector calculation uses call-positive/put-negative signs. Those are different inventory assumptions. Retain the number as the recorded convention-based estimate; the sign cannot establish actual dealer hedging until this labeling conflict is resolved.
A hypothetical hedging mechanism cannot establish actual buying, selling, support or resistance. The printed remaining-days count belongs to the archived record; it is not a current countdown.
The numbers
| Stock price | $147.49 |
|---|---|
| Expiration | Oct 26 (3 days) |
| Peak gamma strike | $145 |
| Strike vs. stock | 1.7% below |
| Net gamma exposure | $12.75M (negative) |
| Premium traded | $21.45M |
| Contracts in chain | 134 |
| 40-session range | $137.90, $176.42 |
| 20-day average price | $155.02 |
| 20-session change | -0.8% |
Three ways this could play out
A later timestamped price above $145 would be an observation above the listed peak strike. Compare the next chain estimate; the crossing does not identify dealer purchases.
A later timestamped price below $145 would be an observation below that reference, not proof that support failed or dealers sold.
A later close near $145 would show proximity only. It would not establish that gamma caused the price or make the strike a predicted expiration pin.
What to watch next
- Compare the next reported peak strike with $145 and keep each chain's observation time and expiry separate.
- Check the formula and long/short inventory assumptions before interpreting a sign change. Open interest alone does not disclose the inventory of dealers.
