GAMMA & VOLATILITY$SPCXSpace Exploration Technologies Corp.Open ticker analysis →The archived SPCX gamma table prints a $150 peak strike, $10.61M (positive) signed exposure estimate and a $149.83 stock reference. The estimate depends on a sign convention; actual dealer holdings and a pinning probability were not supplied.
What happened
The expiration was printed as Oct 28 (2 days), across 134 listed chain contracts. The table's premium value is a saved detector estimate, not a reconstruction of participants' execution cash flows.
Why it matters
The printed $150.00 peak strike differs from the $149.83 stock reference by ($150.00 − $149.83) ÷ $149.83 × 100 = +0.1%. This distance is arithmetic, not the probability that price will reach or remain at the strike.
The saved metadata says dealers_short_calls_long_puts, while the detector calculation uses call-positive/put-negative signs. Those are different inventory assumptions. Retain the number as the recorded convention-based estimate; the sign cannot establish actual dealer hedging until this labeling conflict is resolved.
A hypothetical hedging mechanism cannot establish actual buying, selling, support or resistance. The printed remaining-days count belongs to the archived record; it is not a current countdown.
The numbers
| Stock price | $149.83 |
|---|---|
| Expiration | Oct 28 (2 days) |
| Peak gamma strike | $150 |
| Strike vs. stock | 0.1% above |
| Net gamma exposure | $10.61M (positive) |
| Premium traded | $17.85M |
| Contracts in chain | 134 |
| 39-session range | $138.17, $176.42 |
| 20-day average price | $155.09 |
| 20-session change | +1.0% |
Three ways this could play out
A later timestamped price above $150 would be an observation above the listed peak strike. Compare the next chain estimate; the crossing does not identify dealer purchases.
A later timestamped price below $150 would be an observation below that reference, not proof that support failed or dealers sold.
A later close near $150 would show proximity only. It would not establish that gamma caused the price or make the strike a predicted expiration pin.
What to watch next
- Compare the next reported peak strike with $150 and keep each chain's observation time and expiry separate.
- Check the formula and long/short inventory assumptions before interpreting a sign change. Open interest alone does not disclose the inventory of dealers.
