$RMD Won't Fall, and the Shorts Are Running Out of Time. How Does This End?

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ResMed keeps going up and the short keeps pressing. One of those has to give.

$RMD sits at $252.83, $2.73 below its 20-day high of $255.56 and $34.80 above its 20-day low of $218.03.

My read: lean bullish. Buyers are close enough to force the issue, but I want volume before I call it a breakout.

Pressing into strength

Against its own 60-session range, $RMD is 1.1% below the high of $255.56 (Oct 23) and 25.2% above the low of $202.00 (Aug 7).

$RMD closed higher in 6 of its last 9 sessions. Volume over the last five sessions was in line with the twenty sessions before them (1.0x).

The largest one-day move in the past twenty sessions was +2.9% on Oct 15. 69% of RMD's off-exchange volume printed as short sales (FINRA daily short volume), against a normal 71%.

Days to cover: 12.3. Every short in the name needs 12.3 full days of normal volume to get out.

What I make of it: a crowded short matters only if the stock stops falling, and then covering becomes buying. Whether that starts here is the whole question.

What the market looks to be pricing in

Off-exchange trading: QUIET: no block prints, 25% off-exchange. No block-size prints (10,000+ shares or $1M+) in this window. Off-exchange volume is spread across small prints, which is what internalized retail flow looks like. In options, dealers long gamma, call wall $280.00, put wall $220.00, gamma flip near $260.00, hedge pressure 0% of an average day's volume.

Days to cover 12.3, 11.9M shares short, short interest -24.0% since the last report. Squeeze risk 13 of 100; shorts pressing 66 of 100.

Across the broader market, the read is Neutral (bias -9).

Sentiment readings show leaning bearish (-18 of 100).

What I make of it: the data agrees with itself more than it argues, and that counts for something. It still falls short of proof.

The bull case

• Short squeeze setup with a measured path to $366.58

The bear case

• Backdrop: Neutral (bias -9)
• High short volume is routine in liquid names

The part nobody is talking about

What I think traders are overlooking is the volume. Price can drift to a level on almost nothing, and what it does there needs real participation. Without it, a break is easy to fade.

The price alone doesn't show it.

If I'm right, and what proves me wrong

If $RMD posts a close above $255.57 and volume expands, I think $366.58 becomes the next serious test. Under $227.55, I'm wrong.

The honest objection is that short volume is not a short position. A high ratio is routine in liquid names, and sometimes the shorts are simply right.

That's the whole trade: a level to clear, a line that proves me wrong, and not much in between.

Kill switch

Any one of these and the thesis is over, no averaging down, no renaming it.

• A close through $227.55.
• Selling absorbs the buying at a key level and price loses it on volume.
• Order flow reverses: the sweeps and blocks turn to the other side.
• A scheduled event changes the picture before the trigger is reached.

What I'm watching

I lean higher, not loudly. The setup earns the lean and not the conviction, and it gets the conviction only when volume shows up.

Desk record. 12 of 69 scenario targets traded before their invalidation (17%), 36 stopped out, 21 ran out of time, average outcome +1.69% per piece. Past pieces say nothing about this one.

The desk's scenario leans bullish. Bull or bear, the kill switch above is what keeps either view honest.

Sources and further reading: SEC EDGAR filings for RMD · FINRA daily short sale volume files · Nasdaq short interest: RMD · Cboe options quotes: RMD · ResMed Inc. investor site · RMD quote, chart and data on StockMarketLoop.

Data as of Oct 30, 7:40 AM ET: options positioning, FINRA short volume, the off-exchange trade record, the structure map, SEC filings and the ticker's headlines. Vaughn McNair (Grandmaster-Obi) and Making Easy Money may hold or trade positions in the names discussed. This is speculation and education, not financial advice.