The Options Book in $NBIL Is Doing Something the Chart Isn't Showing

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The chart on $NBIL looks ordinary. The options book does not.

$NBIL sits at $12.60, $17.84 below its 20-day high of $30.43 and $2.79 above its 20-day low of $9.81.

My read: lean bullish. Buyers are close enough to force the issue, but I want volume before I call it a breakout.

What the options book is doing

Against its own 60-session range, $NBIL is 68.9% below the high of $40.51 (Aug 17) and 28.4% above the low of $9.81 (Oct 26).

$NBIL closed higher in 5 of its last 9 sessions. Volume over the last five sessions averaged 1.4x the twenty sessions before them.

The largest one-day move in the past twenty sessions was -24.5% on Oct 16. Dealers are short gamma on NBIL: they have to buy as it rises and sell as it falls, which is what turns a move into a run.

What I make of it: when the hedging runs the same direction as the price, it stops being background noise and starts being the move.

Who is positioned for what

Off-exchange trading: NORMAL: no block prints, 53% off-exchange. No block-size prints (10,000+ shares or $1M+) in this window. Off-exchange volume is spread across small prints, which is what internalized retail flow looks like. In options, dealers short gamma, call wall $15.00, put wall $12.00, gamma flip near $0.0000, hedge pressure 0% of an average day's volume.

Days to cover 1.0, 1.9M shares short, short interest +620.0% since the last report. Squeeze risk 6 of 100; shorts pressing 85 of 100.

Across the broader market, the read is Neutral (bias -4).

Sentiment readings show bullish (46 of 100).

What I make of it: the pieces mostly point the same way as the price, which is more than I can say for most setups. None of them is proof.

The bull case

• Gamma squeeze setup with a measured path to $15.00

The bear case

• Backdrop: Neutral (bias -4)
• Strikes are often crossed without a reaction

What I think traders are overlooking

What I think traders are overlooking is how close the call wall sits to my target. The strike where the calls are stacked can pull price toward it or pin it there, and that makes it a level to watch, not a prediction.

None of that is visible in the candles.

What happens next, and when I'm out

If $NBIL posts a push through $15.00 on volume and volume expands, I think $15.00 becomes the next serious test. Under $11.72, I'm wrong.

The honest objection is that open interest shows contracts, not who holds which side, so any dealer map is an inference. Strikes with heavy interest get crossed without a ripple more often than people admit.

Clear the level on volume and I'm interested. Fail below the line and I'm out of the idea.

Kill switch

Any one of these and the thesis is over, no averaging down, no renaming it.

• A close through $11.72.
• Selling absorbs the buying at a key level and price loses it on volume.
• Order flow reverses: the sweeps and blocks turn to the other side.
• A scheduled event changes the picture before the trigger is reached.

My read

Buyers are close enough to force the issue. I want the volume before I call it anything more than a lean.

Desk record. 12 of 57 scenario targets traded before their invalidation (21%), 31 stopped out, 14 ran out of time, average outcome +2.34% per piece. Past pieces say nothing about this one.

The desk's scenario leans bullish. Bull or bear, the kill switch above is what keeps either view honest.

Sources and further reading: SEC EDGAR filings for NBIL · FINRA daily short sale volume files · Nasdaq short interest: NBIL · Cboe options quotes: NBIL · NBIL quote, chart and data on StockMarketLoop.

Data as of Oct 29, 7:13 AM ET: options positioning, FINRA short volume, the off-exchange trade record, the structure map, SEC filings and the ticker's headlines. Vaughn McNair (Grandmaster-Obi) and Making Easy Money may hold or trade positions in the names discussed. This is speculation and education, not financial advice.