The Shorts in $DD Keep Pressing. What If That's the Mistake?

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Somebody is still shorting DuPont de Nemours, Inc. Common Stock into this, and the FINRA data doesn't care about anyone's opinion. It counts.

$DD sits at $146.99, $7.68 below its 20-day high of $154.67 and $19.44 above its 20-day low of $127.55.

My read: neutral, waiting on confirmation. I want confirmation before I call a direction.

Pressing into strength

Against its own 60-session range, $DD is 5.0% below the high of $154.67 (Nov 3) and 19.7% above the low of $122.80 (Sep 14). $DD closed higher in 7 of its last 9 sessions. Volume over the last five sessions averaged 1.1x the twenty sessions before them.

The largest one-day move in the past twenty sessions was +4.0% on Nov 3.

54% of DD's off-exchange volume printed as short sales (FINRA daily short volume), against a normal 60%. Days to cover: 6.0. Every short in the name needs 6.0 full days of normal volume to get out.

What I make of it: a crowded short matters only if the stock stops falling, and then covering becomes buying. Whether that starts here is the whole question.

What the market looks to be pricing in

Off-exchange trading: NORMAL: $1.7M block at $146.02, under half yesterday's biggest. Biggest single off-exchange print: 11,480 shares at $146.02, about $1.7M, on an uptick (buyer lifted). A print that size is one order being crossed away from the public book, not a crowd of small trades.

Days to cover 6.0, 4.7M shares short, short interest -8.7% since the last report. Squeeze risk 17 of 100; shorts pressing 50 of 100.

Across the broader market, the read is Neutral (bias -2). Insiders: quiet.

On the daily chart, technical patterns include Falling Wedge, long_legged_doji, doji in a up trend.

What I make of it: the pieces mostly point the same way as the price, which is more than I can say for most setups. None of them is proof.

The bull case

• Short squeeze setup with a measured path to $185.16

The bear case

• Backdrop: Neutral (bias -2)
• Borrow cost decides who exits first

The part nobody is talking about

What I think traders are overlooking is how little room the thesis needs. The line that proves it wrong is close and the level it points to is not, which is the kind of imbalance I like to see.

The price alone doesn't show it.

If I'm right, and what proves me wrong

If $DD posts a close above the recent high on rising volume and volume expands, I think $185.16 becomes the next serious test. Under $132.29, I'm wrong.

The honest objection is that short volume is not a short position. A high ratio is routine in liquid names, and sometimes the shorts are simply right.

That's the whole trade: a level to clear, a line that proves me wrong, and not much in between.

Kill switch

Any one of these and the thesis is over, no averaging down, no renaming it.

• A close through $132.29.
• Selling absorbs the buying at a key level and price loses it on volume.
• Order flow reverses: the sweeps and blocks turn to the other side.
• A scheduled event changes the picture before the trigger is reached.

What I'm watching

No edge yet, and I'd rather say so than invent one. The confirmation is the trade.

Desk record. 23 of 129 scenario targets traded before their invalidation (18%), 68 stopped out, 38 ran out of time, average outcome +1.3% per piece. Past pieces say nothing about this one.

The desk's scenario leans bullish. Bull or bear, the kill switch above is what keeps either view honest.

Sources and further reading: SEC EDGAR filings for DD · FINRA daily short sale volume files · Nasdaq short interest: DD · DuPont de Nemours, Inc. Common Stock investor site · DD quote, chart and data on StockMarketLoop.

Data as of Nov 3, 10:15 AM ET: options positioning, FINRA short volume, the off-exchange trade record, the structure map, SEC filings and the ticker's headlines. Vaughn McNair (Grandmaster-Obi) and Making Easy Money may hold or trade positions in the names discussed. This is speculation and education, not financial advice.