The S&P 500 through $SPY: Has an Options Problem, and $807.00 Is Where It Shows

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The people who may move State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust this week aren't traders. They're dealers hedging a book they didn't choose.

$SPY sits at $762.90, $18.72 below its 20-day high of $781.62 and $4.22 above its 20-day low of $758.68.

My read: lean bullish. Buyers are close enough to force the issue, but I want volume before I call it a breakout.

What the options book is doing

Against its own 60-session range, $SPY is 2.4% below the high of $781.62 (Oct 6) and 1.9% above the low of $748.80 (Aug 3). $SPY closed higher in 5 of its last 9 sessions.

Volume over the last five sessions averaged 0.8x the twenty sessions before them. The largest one-day move in the past twenty sessions was -1.2% on Oct 22.

Dealers are short gamma on SPY: they have to buy as it rises and sell as it falls, which is what turns a move into a run.

Hedge flows would absorb 13% of a normal day's volume.

What I make of it: when the hedging runs the same direction as the price, it stops being background noise and starts being the move.

Who is positioned for what

Off-exchange trading: NORMAL: $87.9M block at $763.42, under half yesterday's biggest. Biggest single off-exchange print: 115,193 shares at $763.42, about $87.9M, on an uptick (buyer lifted). A print that size is one order being crossed away from the public book, not a crowd of small trades. In options, dealers short gamma, call wall $807.00, put wall $750.00, gamma flip near $0.0000, 100% of open options expire today, hedge pressure 13% of an average day's volume.

Days to cover 2.0, 98.5M shares short, short interest +1.7% since the last report.

Squeeze risk 22 of 100; shorts pressing 64 of 100. Across the broader market, the read is Neutral (bias +1). Sentiment readings show leaning bearish (-12 of 100).

What I make of it: the data agrees with itself more than it argues, and that counts for something. It still falls short of proof.

The bull case

• Gamma squeeze setup with a measured path to $807.00

The bear case

• Backdrop: Neutral (bias +1)
• Dealer positioning is inferred, not observed

What I think traders are overlooking

What I think traders are overlooking is the volume. Price can drift to a level on almost nothing, and what it does there needs real participation. Without it, a break is easy to fade.

None of that is visible in the candles.

What happens next, and when I'm out

If $SPY posts a push through $807.00 on volume and volume expands, I think $807.00 becomes the next serious test. Under $709.50, I'm wrong.

The honest objection is that open interest shows contracts, not who holds which side, so any dealer map is an inference. Strikes with heavy interest get crossed without a ripple more often than people admit.

Clear the level on volume and I'm interested. Fail below the line and I'm out of the idea.

Kill switch

Any one of these and the thesis is over, no averaging down, no renaming it.

• A close through $709.50.
• Selling absorbs the buying at a key level and price loses it on volume.
• Order flow reverses: the sweeps and blocks turn to the other side.
• A scheduled event changes the picture before the trigger is reached.

My read

I lean higher, not loudly. The setup earns the lean and not the conviction, and it gets the conviction only when volume shows up.

Desk record. 8 of 33 scenario targets traded before their invalidation (24%), 19 stopped out, 6 ran out of time, average outcome +2.62% per piece. Past pieces say nothing about this one.

The desk's scenario leans bullish. Bull or bear, the kill switch above is what keeps either view honest.

Sources and further reading: SEC EDGAR filings for SPY · FINRA daily short sale volume files · Nasdaq short interest: SPY · Cboe options quotes: SPY · SPY quote, chart and data on StockMarketLoop.

Data as of Oct 26, 10:05 AM ET: options positioning, FINRA short volume, the off-exchange trade record, the structure map, SEC filings and the ticker's headlines. Vaughn McNair (Grandmaster-Obi) and Making Easy Money may hold or trade positions in the names discussed. This is speculation and education, not financial advice.